Improving Lake Superior outflow regulation and quantifying uncertainty | W81EWF 26 SOI 0004

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1) What is this funding opportunity about?

This opportunity from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), seeks proposals for a cooperative agreement aimed at improving how Lake Superior outflows are regulated. The focus is on strengthening the science behind discharge estimates at a key control structure by producing operationally useful uncertainty information tied to new outflow rating equations.

2) Why are discharge estimates and rating equations so important for Lake Superior regulation?

Discharge measurements and the equations that convert gate settings and water levels into flow rates are central inputs to the Lake Superior Regulation Plan. Because these estimates influence Great Lakes water management decisions more broadly, USACE is seeking uncertainty information that can be used directly in operational decision-making and modeling workflows.

3) What is the base scope of work (Task 1)?

Task 1 is an uncertainty analysis for a new set of outflow rating equations currently being developed by a University of Michigan team using advanced physical modeling and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The goal is to produce quantified uncertainty bounds for discharge estimates across different combinations of gate openings and water levels.

4) What operational problem is Task 1 trying to solve?

Current gate operations include partially open settings that older historical rating equations did not represent well. That legacy approach can miss important real-world operating conditions. This project is intended to provide credible uncertainty bounds so USACE can understand not only the estimated flow, but also confidence in that estimate across the operating range.

5) What is the required uncertainty analysis framework for Task 1?

Applicants are expected to use the publicly available Large Lake Statistical Water Balance Model as the uncertainty analysis framework. This requirement is intended to keep uncertainty outputs consistent with other operational uncertainty models USACE uses for Great Lakes water balance components.

6) What does USACE mean by "operationally usable" uncertainty information?

The uncertainty results should be implementation-ready and suitable for immediate incorporation into existing USACE decision and modeling workflows used for regulation work. The intent is not purely academic analysis, but uncertainty metrics that can be plugged into operational modeling and regulation processes.

7) What are the key deliverables for the base task?

The principal deliverable for Task 1 is a defensible uncertainty band (or equivalent uncertainty metrics) for discharge rates tied to the new rating equations, suitable for immediate incorporation into operational modeling and regulation work.

8) How long is the anticipated performance period for Task 1?

The anticipated performance period for the base task is 12 months, driven largely by the schedule needs of an upcoming study that requires the results.

9) Is collaboration with the University of Michigan team required?

Yes. A clear plan to collaborate closely with, and integrate work products with, the University of Michigan modeling team is described as a non-negotiable requirement. The uncertainty analysis must align with the new rating equations and be directly usable with them.

10) What is the optional work described in the announcement (Task 2)?

Task 2, funded only if additional money becomes available, is the development and calibration of a high-fidelity, fully three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the St. Marys River using the Delft3D FM modeling suite.

11) Is Task 2 required in order to propose Task 1?

Task 2 is described as optional and funded only if additional funds become available. It is also described as not dependent on the base task, meaning it is framed as additional work that may be added if funding allows.

12) What geographic area must the Task 2 hydrodynamic model cover?

The model scope must extend from Point Iroquois at the Lake Superior end to the river outlet near Detour Village on Lake Huron. The model domain must also include the North Channel of Lake Huron out to Little Current, Ontario, while explicitly excluding connections to Georgian Bay.

13) What technical features are emphasized for the Task 2 model?

The announcement emphasizes accurately resolving the St. Marys Rapids and ensuring the model can incorporate both the new rating equations and the uncertainty analysis produced under Task 1.

14) Why is Delft3D FM required for Task 2?

Delft3D FM is mandated because both the U.S. Government and Canadian partners (including Environment and Climate Change Canada) have access to it, making it a common platform for binational work.

15) What support will the government provide for Task 2 if it is funded?

The government indicates it will provide water level and velocity datasets for calibration, along with computational resources. This support is intended to help teams focus on model construction, calibration, validation, and operational readiness rather than data acquisition or hardware constraints.

16) What is the overarching goal across both tasks?

Across the base and optional tasks, USACE emphasizes delivery of technically sound, implementation-ready uncertainty metrics and modeling products that integrate immediately into USACE operational models, supporting improved ecological outcomes and stronger water resource management decisions across the Great Lakes system.

17) What type of award is being offered?

This is a discretionary funding opportunity, with awards made as cooperative agreements under CFDA 12.630.

18) What is the opportunity number?

The opportunity number is W81EWF 26 SOI 0004.

19) What is the closing date listed in the notice?

The original closing date is 2026-07-06.

20) What is the maximum funding amount?

The stated award ceiling is $200,000.

21) How many awards does USACE expect to make?

Up to two awards are expected.

22) Who is eligible to apply?

Eligibility is restricted to non-federal partners of the Great Lakes Northern Forest Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit (CESU). Applicants must already be part of that CESU partnership structure (or otherwise qualify as a non-federal partner under it).

23) Are religious organizations eligible to compete?

Yes. Religious organizations are explicitly allowed to compete on equal footing with other eligible applicants, consistent with Executive Order 13798.

24) Are there compliance or disclosure requirements applicants should be aware of?

The notice highlights compliance and disclosure expectations around current and pending support. Disclosures can affect eligibility, and ERDC may request updates before award and during the performance period. The notice also indicates funding could be discontinued if issues arise.

25) What should applicants be prepared to provide regarding optional tasks?

Applicants are expected to be able to provide clear scopes of work for additional tasks if those options end up being funded.